Land Value Changes Analysis in Sub-Urban Area of Surabaya-Gresik using Spatial Modelling of Anselin Local Moran’s I

Abstract

Land value changes in suburban areas are a complex phenomenon influenced by land use dynamics, population growth, and infrastructure development. In metropolitan regions like Surabaya, urbanization pressure has led to land conversion, especially from agricultural land to residential and industrial zones. This suburbanization process triggers uneven changes in land value, depending on external factors such as accessibility and regional connectivity. This study aims to analyze the relationship between land use change from non-urban to urban and the changes in land value in the Surabaya–Gresik area in 2019 and 2023. The analysis utilizes GIS-based and spatial modelling with Sentinel-1 imagery, Land Value Zone (ZNT) maps, and the Anselin Local Moran’s I method to identify spatial clustering patterns of land value changes. The results indicate that most areas undergoing urbanization also experienced an increase in land value, classified as High-High (HH) clusters, particularly in the districts of Sambikerep, Lakarsantri, and Menganti. However, exceptions were found in areas such as the southwestern parts of Lakarsantri and Pakal, which, despite urbanization, remained in the Low-Low (LL) cluster, reflecting persistently low land values. These findings highlight that urbanization does not automatically raise land value without supporting infrastructure and adequate accessibility. This spatial-temporal approach provides crucial insights for regional planning that is responsive to the dynamic growth of suburban areas.