GIS-Based Spatio-temporal Analysis of COPD Incidence Rates and High-risk Clusters in Suphan Buri, Thailand

Abstract

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health challenge, particularly in provinces with persistent environmental and demographic risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of COPD incidence in Suphan Buri province from 2019 to 2024 using village-level health records and geographic information systems (GIS). Annual incidence rates were calculated and stabilized using Empirical Bayes Smoothing, and spatial clustering was assessed using global Moran’s I and local Moran’s I. The analysis revealed consistent spatial clustering across all study years, with persistent hotspot villages primarily located in Si Prachan, Song Phi Nong, Dan Chang, and Doem Bang Nang Buat districts. In addition, 30 villages transitioned from outlier status to hotspot status, indicating the emergence of new high-risk areas. These findings highlight the uneven spatial distribution of COPD burden and emphasize the need for targeted surveillance, proactive case detection, and focused resource allocation in both persistent and emerging hotspot locations.