GIS and Lineament Analysis for Monitoring Geodynamic Activity in the Charvak Reservoir Region

Abstract

This study introduces an innovative geospatial approach for monitoring seasonal geodynamic activity and seismic hazard in the Charvak Reservoir region of northeastern Uzbekistan an area characterized by inherited fault systems, frequent shallow earthquakes, and cyclic hydrological loading. Unlike previous studies that assess deformation using long-term seismicity or single-period imagery, this work integrates multi-temporal satellite remote sensing (Landsat-8), automated GIS-based lineament analysis, directional statistics, historical seismicity (1955–2024), and monthly water volume records. Lineament extraction was performed for three hydrological phases in 2024 March (low water), July (peak water), and September (drawdown) to capture the structural response to seasonal stress fluctuations. Results reveal a marked increase in lineament density during and after the peak water phase, particularly near active fault zones. Orientation patterns remained stable (NE–SW, E–W), aligning with regional tectonics, while density shifts indicated dynamic stress redistribution. Spatial overlay with seismic epicenters confirmed a strong correspondence between high-density lineament zones and localized deformation. Based on these multi-source indicators, five geodynamically active subzones were delineated, with the highest hazard concentration in the North Pskem and Kumbel-Kokand sectors. The key contribution of this study lies in applying a seasonal, lineament-based deformation monitoring framework previously untested in the Charvak region which enhances the understanding of reservoir-induced stress responses and provides a transferable model for georisk management in tectonically complex hydrosystems.